It’s Thursday, and Stats NZ publishes June quarter GDP at 10.45 this morning. Before it lands, a survey of households says the domestic customer is feeling slightly better and spending no more. Here’s what’s moving.
Consumer confidence rose to 89.5 in the September quarter, and households are still cutting back on eating out
The Westpac McDermott Miller Consumer Confidence Index, published yesterday, rose 9.1 points to 89.5 for the three months to September. That puts last quarter’s reading at 89.5 minus 9.1, or 80.4, which RNZ describes as a three-year low. The index is built so that 100 is the line between optimism and pessimism, so 89.5 is still 10.5 points on the gloomy side of neutral.
The recovery in the headline has not reached behaviour. Westpac senior economist Satish Ranchhod said households “continued to cut back on dining out and entertainment”, and were also delaying major purchases, buying fewer or cheaper groceries, and driving less. The pressures named are the ones this briefing has been tracking all month: fuel prices, rising interest rates, and the general cost of living.
The survey agrees with two sets of card data already reported here. ANZ’s card spending had hospitality down 1.0 percent in August, and Stats NZ’s electronic card transactions had it down 1.7 percent seasonally adjusted. Three different measures, one survey and two sets of transactions, now point the same way for the domestic diner and day-tripper.
Two details are worth holding onto for operators who sell to New Zealanders:
- Only about one in ten women and two in ten men expect good economic times over the next 12 months, and Ranchhod said households are not expecting things to improve over 2027.
- The most optimistic regions were Auckland, Northland and Bay of Plenty. Taranaki and Manawatū-Whanganui replaced Wellington as the most pessimistic.
“Driving less” is the line to watch for anyone whose domestic customer arrives by car. A weekend trip is exactly the kind of spending a household trims when fuel is over $3.10 a litre.
Stat of the day
89.5
The Westpac McDermott Miller Consumer Confidence Index for the September quarter, up from 80.4 but still below the 100 mark where optimists and pessimists balance. (Westpac McDermott Miller, via RNZ)
Source: RNZ
Wellington gets the Race of Champions on 9 and 10 January, the first time the event has come to New Zealand
The Race of Champions will build a temporary tarmac track inside Wellington’s Hnry Stadium and run on 9 and 10 January 2027. The format puts drivers from different kinds of motorsport into identical cars and races them head to head. Confirmed so far are four-time Formula 1 world champion Sebastian Vettel, Valtteri Bottas, 2025 Supercars champion Chaz Mostert and New Zealand rally driver Hayden Paddon, with more to be named.
The event is backed by the Government through MBIE’s one-off Events Attraction Package, with WellingtonNZ and the stadium delivering it. Neither the release nor the coverage gives the size of the public contribution or any visitor or economic estimate, so there is no number yet to judge it against. Tickets start at $49 for a day and $74 for the weekend. Pre-sale opens on Monday 21 September and general sales on Tuesday 22 September.
The timing is what makes this interesting for the capital. Wellington’s visitor economy leans on business travel and Parliament, both of which go quiet in early January, while the rest of the country is at its summer peak. A two-day international motorsport event in the second weekend of January fills a gap rather than competing with a busy one. 1News reports track construction starts on 2 January, after a Wellington Phoenix match, which gives the city a week of build to show off before a single car turns a wheel.
Source: WellingtonNZ, 1News
New Zealand held 49 days of jet fuel on 6 September, and Z Energy says prices are not coming down soon
Fuel stock figures reported by RNZ on 15 September put New Zealand’s holdings, as at 6 September, at:
- Petrol: 52 days
- Diesel: 51 days
- Jet fuel: 49 days
Z Energy chief executive Lindis Jones said supply “remains secure”, but that fuel is taking longer and costing more to move while the US-Iran conflict disrupts Middle East routes. He gave no timeframe for price relief, and said the industry is still unclear how badly facilities in the Middle East have been damaged. An MBIE official told RNZ they were confident a supply shock could be avoided. The average price of 91 petrol is over $3.10 a litre.
Jet fuel sitting lowest of the three is the detail for aviation. None of the reporting suggests airlines are short, and 49 days is not an emergency. But higher jet fuel costs flow into fares and surcharges on the routes that bring visitors in, at the same time as the domestic traveller is driving less. The margin between “secure” and “comfortable” is what has narrowed.
Source: RNZ
Hamilton Airport keeps the land it would need for a runway big enough for 787s, for another 15 years
An independent commissioner has granted Hamilton Airport the maximum 15-year extensions on three land designations around the airport. The designations protect the land a longer runway would need, and extending them was a condition of the Regional Infrastructure Fund loan now paying for the runway work already under way.
That current project adds 250 metres to what the airport says is already the fourth longest runway in the country. It is costing $9.8 million: a $6.5 million government loan plus $3.3 million from the airport. The designations go further, keeping open a longer runway that the airport says “could potentially allow” scheduled services by 787-sized passenger and freight aircraft. There is no timeline for that, and chief executive Mark Morgan framed the decision as freedom to look at what might be possible.
Hamilton’s international story so far is Jetstar’s direct flights to the Gold Coast and Sydney, which began in 2025. A widebody runway is a long way from a widebody airline. What the decision does is stop the option expiring. The airport is owned by five councils: Hamilton City, Waipā, Waikato, Ōtorohanga and Matamata-Piako.
Source: Hamilton Airport via Scoop
A new Hamilton programme targets a shortage of about 500 aircraft engineers
Nelson Marlborough Institute of Technology and aircraft manufacturer NZAero will run aviation engineering training from NZAero’s Hamilton factory, the institute’s first real move into the North Island. The release says that once fully established the initiative will contribute to training up to 230 aviation engineering students a year across New Zealand. It gives no start date or Hamilton intake number.
The shortage figures come from workforce modelling by Scarlatti for the Aviation Industry Association and Ringa Hora, published in October 2024:
- About 3,000 aviation engineers work in New Zealand now, with a shortfall of about 500
- 4,500 will be needed by 2034, a 50 percent increase in eight years
- New entrants are growing by about 1.4 percent a year, while people leaving the workforce are growing by about 3 percent a year
The last line is the problem in one comparison: the people leaving are growing twice as fast as the people arriving. NZAero chief executive Stephen Burrows put the ratio at four engineers for every pilot and aircraft they operate. For visitors, engineers are invisible until they are missing, and then they show up as a cancelled regional flight or a scenic aircraft sitting in a hangar.
Source: NMIT and NZAero via Scoop
Coming up
- 17 September Stats NZ releases GDP for the June 2026 quarter at 10.45am. Economists quoted by RNZ expect growth of 0.1 to 0.2 percent for the quarter
- 18 September TrailLite launches the Roadcraft
- 21 September Race of Champions pre-sale opens, with general ticket sales from 22 September
- 24 September Air New Zealand’s annual shareholders’ meeting, online, where Larry De Shon retires from the board and Campbell Wilson and Robert McDonald stand for election. The House rises ahead of the general election, and new visitor visa applications must be started in the enhanced Immigration Online system
- 30 September Feedback closes on Goat Island parking pricing, and AAT Kings early-bird pricing closes on the 2027/28 season
- September Avani Queenstown opens on the Lake Wākatipu waterfront. Cabinet’s decision on essential air route funding for Originair’s Westport service is still unannounced
- 1 October Parliament is dissolved, with writ day on 4 October and nominations closing at noon on 8 October
- 8 October The old visitor visa forms close and remaining drafts are deleted
- October Christchurch Airport’s annual meeting and SkyCity’s annual meeting
- 18 October Cardrona’s extended closing date
- 26 October Voting opens for the general election
- 28 October Air New Zealand’s first direct Christchurch to Singapore service
- 4 November Tourism Summit Aotearoa and the New Zealand Tourism Awards, Te Pae Christchurch
- 7 November General election
- 28 and 30 November Air New Zealand’s first direct Christchurch services to Narita and Perth
- 30 November DOC’s control window in the Wilberforce and Mathias closes, and Wairere Falls Track is due to reopen
- Mid-December Mangatepopo Track reopens, restoring the Tongariro Northern Circuit loop
- 18 December Oturere Hut and campsite open for bookings
- End of 2026 DOC and the Backcountry Trust aim to sign a national operational agreement on the hut and track network
- 9 and 10 January 2027 Race of Champions, Hnry Stadium, Wellington
- 19 to 25 April 2027 Conservation Week, finishing on ANZAC Day
- 1 July 2027 The date National’s council funding, and ACT’s Local Tourism Dividend, would both start
- Late 2027 The Arawa Park Hotel reopens as the Rotorua Marriott Hotel, the first Marriott Hotels-branded property in New Zealand
That's today's briefing. The Shoulder Season is back every weekday morning.