It’s Wednesday, and the two halves of the summer outlook arrived within a day of each other: more seats in the air, fewer passengers at sea. Five items. Here’s what’s moving.
Auckland Airport schedules nearly six million international seats for summer, with a record 48,000 more from China
Auckland Airport says nearly six million international seats are scheduled through the airport between November and March, 5 percent more than last summer. The standout is China. Capacity between China and Auckland is expected to rise 9 percent, which the airport calls a record 48,000 extra seats. China Southern is lifting Guangzhou capacity by 23 percent to as many as 18 flights a week, Air China is adding 46 percent on Beijing including double-daily services over Chinese New Year, and China Eastern doubles its Shanghai, Auckland and Buenos Aires service from two flights a week to four from early December.
China was the slowest market to recover from the pandemic. Westpac senior economist Darren Gibbs said that a year ago analysts were often seeing Chinese visitor levels at only 60 to 65 percent of pre-Covid, and he credits the visa changes, including NZeTA transit for Chinese nationals since last November, for much of the turnaround. The airport’s chief customer officer, Scott Tasker, put Australia at 103 percent of pre-Covid and the United States at 105 percent, and said airlines had added the capacity despite higher fuel prices. The airport says holidaymakers make up 76 percent of Chinese arrivals, staying around ten days and spending about $5,700 a trip. Advisory firm ISD Partners expects international capacity across the whole country to be up about 6 percent this summer, with most of the growth on Australia, China and Singapore.
Stat of the day
48,000
Extra seats between China and Auckland this summer, a 9 percent rise and what the airport calls a record. (Auckland Airport via NZ Herald)
Source: NZ Herald
The cruise season arrives 136,000 passengers lighter than three years ago, and Wellington feels it most
The other half of the summer picture is at the wharf. Compared with 2023/24, the season the industry wants to get back to, 22 fewer cruise ships will visit New Zealand this season, making 477 fewer port calls and bringing 136,470 fewer passengers. Wellington alone expects 35,000 fewer. The Wellington Cable Car, which estimates 60 to 70 percent of cruise passengers in the capital ride it, expects profit to be $800,000 lower than three years ago. Its chief executive, Tansy Tompkins, who also chairs the New Zealand Cruise Association, said nationally the passengers lost equal the size of the entire German or Indian visitor market.
The association blames biofouling rules, costs from Customs, MPI, Maritime NZ and the ports, and new charges introduced inside the booking window, when cruise lines can no longer pass them on. Chief executive Jacqui Lloyd points to an 83 percent increase in port calls expected over the next two years, but full recovery is not forecast until 2028/29. Operators who lean on cruise days have two lean summers to get through, and Wellington tour company Ka Rawe has already responded by expanding to Auckland, where the ships still call.
Source: NZ Herald
Heavy rain hits Buller today, and snow is forecast for the alpine passes on Thursday and Friday
Tuesday’s mid-twenties warmth in Christchurch, Blenheim and Timaru was brief. MetService has an orange heavy rain warning for the Buller District until 9pm tonight, with up to 110mm expected mainly about the ranges, and heavy rain watches for the Westland and Grey ranges and the Canterbury high country near the Main Divide. North Otago, Dunedin and Clutha come under a watch from this evening.
Forecasting supplied to NZTA suggests snow from Thursday: up to 5cm on the higher parts of Porter Pass on SH73, up to 4cm in the Arthur’s Pass area and on SH7 east of Lewis Pass on Friday, and lesser amounts on SH8 and SH80 around Tekapo and Aoraki Mount Cook Village. SH7 is already under weekday stop-go for the Lewis Pass rebuild, so anyone crossing to the West Coast or heading into the Mackenzie in the second half of the week should check conditions before leaving.
Source: NZTA and MetService release via Scoop
Auckland’s mayor says Saturday’s Kingsland rail delays were Eden Park’s contractor’s fault, not a missing footbridge
Yesterday’s briefing reported Eden Park chief executive Nick Sautner calling for a footbridge over Sandringham Road and other rail upgrades after hundreds of Bledisloe fans were stranded at Kingsland. Mayor Wayne Brown has hit back. He says initial audit findings show the Morningside Drive level crossing was closed later than the approved traffic management plan required, by Eden Park’s own traffic management contractor, which meant trains could not be positioned ready to leave after the game. He called Sautner’s footbridge comments inappropriate and said the delays were “an operational issue, not an infrastructure one”.
Brown also wants a wider look at event transport around the ground, led by the council with Auckland Transport, Auckland One Rail and Eden Park, aimed at cheap fixes rather than new structures. A review of Saturday involving Eden Park and its contractor is under way. For anyone selling Auckland stadium events to out-of-town visitors, the useful news is that the fix being discussed is a matter of following the plan, which is quicker than building a bridge.
Source: Office of the Mayor of Auckland via Scoop
Business failures reach a ten-year high, with no sign of easing
Applications to wind up companies reached 1,072 in the first nine months of the year, more than in any full year from 2017 to 2023, according to insolvency firm McDonald Vague, and Inland Revenue was behind 80 percent of September’s applications. Centrix counted 3,105 liquidations in the year to August, up 14 percent on a year earlier. Simplicity’s chief economist, Shamubeel Eaqub, found court-ordered liquidations at their highest since 2009 and net company formation at its lowest since 2016. He added that the median insolvent business is now 7.2 years old, against six years in 2019: “It’s not just newbies or Covid.”
The figures are not broken down by industry, so they say nothing directly about tourism or hospitality. What they do show is a tax collector pursuing old debts and a lending environment that is getting tighter rather than looser: McDonald Vague’s Keaton Pronk said two more rate rises would keep the pressure on. The next Reserve Bank decision is on 28 October, which is the date to watch for any operator carrying debt into summer.
Source: RNZ
Coming up
- 14 October: CAA consultation on the security levy cut closes at noon, and Stats NZ releases international travel figures for August
- 15-16 October: Snow forecast on Porter Pass, Arthur’s Pass, SH7 east of Lewis Pass and the Mackenzie highways
- 19 October: Te Tapuwae o Rongokako marine reserve review survey closes
- 22 October: Waitākere Ranges Local Board votes on the future of Piha Beach Campground, and Lyttelton’s 2026-27 cruise season opens
- 25 October: The airlines’ summer scheduling season begins
- 26 October: Air New Zealand’s first Auckland to Western Sydney service
- 28 October: Reserve Bank OCR decision, and Air New Zealand’s first Christchurch to Singapore service
- 1 November: Backcountry Hut Tickets move to DOC’s online booking system
- 4 November: Tourism Summit Aotearoa and the NZ Tourism Awards, Te Pae Christchurch, and Stats NZ’s September quarter labour market figures
- 7 November: General election
- 11 December: SH7 Lewis Pass rebuild due to finish
That's today's briefing. The Shoulder Season is back every weekday morning.